The potential of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval to drive prices up is dramatically underestimated by the crypto market, claim analysts from crypto research firm K33 — formerly Arcane Research.
In a Sept. 5 market report, K33 senior analyst Vetle Lunde and vice president Anders Helseth said the last three months had greatly improved the chances of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval but that sentiment had not been reflected in the price of Bitcoin or other mainstay crypto assets.
The analysts explained while Bitcoin had all but given up its gains in the wake of Grayscale’s legal victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission, an approval would “attract enormous inflows” and significantly increase buying pressure for Bitcoin.
However, the downside of a potential spot ETF rejection would be “negligible” and Bitcoin prices would simply maintain business as usual, they wrote.
Lunde and Helseth added that given the increased likelihood of spot ETF approvals — with several Bloomberg analysts now predicting a 75% chance of approval within the year — the market’s outlook on ETFs is fundamentally incorrect.
“I firmly believe the market is wrong. This is, by all accounts, a buyer’s market, and it’s reckless not to aggressively accumulate BTC at current levels.”
Bolstering their bullish prediction, the analysts looked to the recent 2% gain in the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index, often viewed as an indicator of the broader market’s risk appetite.
ETH set to outperform BTC
Additionally, Lunde and Helserth shared their optimism for the price of Ether (ETH), explaining that ETH appears likely to outperform Bitcoin over the next two months as it will benefit from strong momentum ahead of a futures-based ETF listing.
Related: BTC bull market began in March, more will realize in a year — Arthur Hayes
They explained Ether may track a similar path to Bitcoin which gained roughly 60% in the weeks leading up to the launch of the first Bitcoin futures-based ETF on Oct. 19, 2021.
The verdict on a futures-based Ether ETF is slated to be handed down in mid-October, which is reportedly set to get the green light from the SEC.
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