- Bitcoin is down by a solid 12% over the past month as the cryptocurrency battles to stay above support around $25,400.
- A break of the current support could send Bitcoin into the June 2023 lows.
- Ethereum is down by a similar 13% on the month as the cryptocurrency struggles to hold support above $1,600.
The price of Bitcoin has witnessed a struggling 30-day period after falling 12% over the past month, reaching the current $25,800 level. The cryptocurrency underwent a momentum-shifting collapse during mid-August as it broke beneath the $28,650 level and plummeted as low as $25,415, where it found support provided by the May 2022 lows. The number-one-ranked cryptocurrency is now battling to hold short-term support in a rising price channel.
Similarly, Ethereum is down by 13% this month as it battles to maintain its own support above $1,600.
Expert Gracy Chen, Managing Director at Bitget, believes the next move will be dictated by the Federal Reserve’s subsequent interest rate adjustment, scheduled for September 19-20. Furthermore, Chen states that this week’s CPI might dictate the current rate decision.
Let’s take a deep dive into both tokens and see where the market might find support moving forward.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Market Overview: Why is Bitcoin Down 20% From The Highs?
Bitcoin is down almost 20% from the 2023 highs set in mid-July. The cryptocurrency bounced from the June 2023 lows of around $24,750 to reach the 2023 highs of $31,820 in the first week of July. From there, BTC/USD started to trend lower inside a descending price channel over the following weeks. In mid-August, $BTC suddenly crashed, dropping as much as 11% in two days. The price collapse was largely a mixture of factors, including Elon Musk’s companies selling their Bitcoin holdings and a liquidation cascade in the futures markets.
Following the collapse, Bitcoin found support at the $25,415 – provided by the May 2022 lows – and has been defending more local support at $25,800. The four-hour chart shows that Bitcoin has been trading in an ascending price channel since the start of September, with the buyers defending the channel’s lower boundary over the weekend.
Traders are now watching the next rate adjustment from the Federal Reserve, scheduled for September 21st. With most traders expecting no rate adjustment, experts suggest that the next Bitcoin move will occur after the announcement.
Gracy Chen, Managing Director at BitGet, believes that the discussions surrounding rate cuts aren’t expected to start until the CPI shows a substantial shift in inflation figures, with the earliest talks expected from March to May next year.
The next CPI figure will be released on Wednesday this week, which could bring another bearish move in the market if the figure doesn’t meet expectations.
BTC Price Prediction: Bearish
Although it has established a short-term range, Bitcoin is still bearish during the current period.
A further break beneath $25,414 (May 2022 lows) would indicate a long-term bearish move for Bitcoin. The coin must gain ground back above $26,400 to turn neutral.
To be considered bullish in the short term, it would have to reclaim territory above $30,000.
Where Are We Headed?
This week’s CPI figures should dictate the next move as traders attempt to front-run the FOMC interest rate decision later in the week.
A break beneath the short-term rising price channel would see the market heading into the first support at $25,415 (May 2022 lows), which has supported the market throughout August and September.
Beneath this, added support lies at $25,000, $24,750 (June 2023 lows), $24,235 (December 2020 resistance), and $24,000. Further support is expected at $23,570 (downside 1.272 Fib Extension), $23,000, $22,650 (December 2020 support), $22,000, and $21,600.
Gracy Chen also weighed in with her prediction, highlighting a more welcomed optimistic sentiment;
“In September, unless there are significant negative factors in the market, it’s predicted that due to exhausted market hotspots and reduced trading momentum, BTC might test its previous low of $24,800 again. After that, a rebound is expected, with key levels to watch at $27,500, $28,000, and $29,000.”
Ethereum Price Analysis
What Has Been Going On?
Ethereum also feels the devastating effects of the mid-August market collapse, falling as low as $1,588 during the process. The cryptocurrency is now down by a total of 21% from the mid-August highs set at $2,030 as it currently battles to remain above the $1,600 level. Ethereum is currently trading above support at a short-term falling trend line.
A break beneath this trend line could indicate a more defined bearish move ahead for the altcoin, which could send the market plummeting beneath $1,500. Nevertheless, Chen believes Ethereum provides a more favorable value proposition when compared with Bitcoin due to its increased staking activity.
“ETH is relatively weaker compared to BTC, as BTC’s market dominance has been rapidly rising. However, in the long term, ETH’s value proposition is higher.”
The cryptocurrency expert stated that although the deflation on the network has remained relatively stable, increased activity in the altcoin sector could result in the ETH deflation rate rising.
Furthermore, Chen continued to state that a break above $29,000 in Bitcoin would surge in altcoin market activity, which could result in an attempt above $2,140 for Ethereum.
ETH Price Prediction: Bearish
The current market condition for Ethereum is bearish as it continues to struggle to hold above the $1,600 level. A further downside break beneath $1,588 would result in a long-term bearish market condition. The coin would need to make ground above $1,750 to turn neutral and would have to continue above $1,875 to turn bullish in the short term. On the way up, resistance lies at $1,650, $1,700, $1,750, $1,780, and $1,875.
Where Is the Support Toward the Downside?
On the other side, if the sellers break beneath the current downward-sloping support, the first level of support below lies at $1,588. This is followed by added support at $1,550, $1,535 (.786 Fib Retracement), $1,510 (March 2021 lows), $1,488, and $1,455 (downside 1.414 Fib Extension). Added support lies at $1,420 and $1,400.